Solving problem N4011 Bayesian probability theory

Solving problem N4011 Bayesian probability theory

4011. In stock there are instruments manufactured by three plants: 20% of the instruments are manufactured by plant No. 1, 50% by plant No. 2, 30% by plant No. 3. The likelihood that during the year the device will need repairs for the production of each plant, respectively, 0,2; 0.1; 0.3. The device, taken from the warehouse, had no factory marking and required repairs during the year. Which plant most likely made this device? What is the probability?

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Detailed solution. Decorated in Microsoft Word 2003 (Quest decided to use the formula editor)