Solving problem N3981 Bayesian probability theory

Solving problem N3981 Bayesian probability theory

3981. In the sale of the same type products from three plants. Marriage respectively is 2, 6, 7%. The first plant supplies 40% of production, the second - 25%, the third - 35%. A single item is removed at random.
1) What is the probability to purchase a defective product.
2) Which plant most likely produced an acquired good-quality product.

Additional information:

Detailed solution. Decorated in Microsoft Word 2003 (Quest decided to use the formula editor)

Discount for regular customers! If the total of your purchases from the seller Massimo86 exceeds:

• $30 discount 10%
• $20 discount 7%
• $18 discount 6%
• $15 discount 5%
• $12 discount 4%
• $9 discount 3%
• $6 discount 2%
• $3 discount 1%