Solving problem N3941 Bayesian probability theory

Solving problem N3941 Bayesian probability theory

3941. Watches are made in three factories and go to the store. The first plant produces 30% of all products, the second - 35%, the third - 35%. Of the products of the first plant, 10% are in a hurry, in the second - 15%, in the third - 20%. What is the probability that the purchased watch is in a hurry and released at the second factory?

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Detailed solution. Decorated in Microsoft Word 2003 (Quest decided to use the formula editor)